What Are Model Bets?
Our proprietary models assign a 1-5 star rating to every spread, moneyline and over/under bet. Our best bets are determined by the difference between our projection and the consensus odds.
Five-star bets are the most valuable bets, followed by four-star bets and so on. The goal of the star ratings model is to make betting as straightforward as possible. The 5-star bets are the best bets because our model indicates a significantly different outcome relative to the current sportsbook line. Conversely, 1-star bets indicate a projected line that is very similar to the sportsbook line — typically a losing proposition for a bettor in the long run. Here are a couple examples:
In the college hoops matchup between New Hampshire and Maine above, our model assigned a five-star rating to New Hampshire (-7.5) against the spread because it listed them as 10.5-point favorites (a three-point difference from the consensus line). Therefore, locking UNH in around the -7.5 mark on your favorite sportsbook would be recommended and backed by our model.
In this example, over 221.5 total points in the Warriors vs. Blazers game is listed as a 3-star bet since our model projected the total to be 227, a 5.5-point differential. In this case, a three-star bet didn’t indicate as much value as a 4-star or 5-star bet, but there’s still a noticeable edge.
How Model Bets Are Identified
Our model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather and injuries. From there, we set our own line, compare it with Vegas and assign a star rating to each spread, moneyline and over/under bet.
The team ratings use a strategic combination of historical team results, the current matchup (including anticipated starters) and the projected outcome. Team ratings are dynamic and will update based on major player injury news. The team’s offensive rating is the core piece and carries the most weight. The defensive rating as well as home field advantage are each significant factors. Other factors (weather, injuries, narratives, etc.) are taken into consideration and applied where appropriate.
Why Our Model Bets Change
There are a number of factors that could alter a star rating. Speculation around injuries, weather, narratives, etc. oftentimes move the line throughout the day/week leading up to a game and, since our evaluation of the matchup is relative to the sportsbook, will impact the star rating. Keep in mind that movement often revolves around the sportsbook looking to hedge against significant loss. Fortunately, our model is deaf to the noise, so you get consistent winners.
Why Accessing Our Model Bets Matters
Generally speaking, 3-star bets (and better) are recommended for the average user. A more aggressive bettor can bet 2-star games, while a more conservative bettor should stick to 4 and 5-star bets. Additionally, you are able to scale the wager based on star rating. For example, if you are aggressively betting all bets rated 2-stars and above, we recommend that you bet a larger percentage of your bankroll on a 5-star bet than a 2-star bet.
BetQL users can easily identify the best value on one platform. In addition to our best bet star ratings, we also feature live odds, public betting data, sharp betting data, line movement data and relevant team trends. Find out more about BetQL and feel free to check out our Help Center if you have any questions.