All of our NFL subscriptions come with full access to our model’s best bets, public betting data and sharp betting data, among other useful tools. Let’s go through all three of them and explain what they are and why they're useful.
Our Model’s Best Bets
What Are Best Bets?
Our proprietary models assign a 1-5 star rating to every spread, moneyline and over/under bet. Our best bets are determined by the difference between our projection and the consensus odds.
Five-star bets are the most valuable bets, followed by four-star bets and so on. The goal of the star ratings model is to make betting as straightforward as possible. The 5-star bets are the best bets because our model indicates a significantly different outcome relative to the current sportsbook line. Conversely, 1-star bets indicate a projected line that is very similar to the sportsbook line — typically a losing proposition for a bettor in the long run.
This is an example of what a best bet looks like:
As you can see, the Patriots (-21) were listed as a five-star bet since our model had them as 25.5 favorites, which was a 4.5-point difference from the consensus line. However, if our model projected them as 22-point favorites for example, they wouldn't be a five-star value (and would likely be a 1 or 2-star bet) since our projection would nearly match the consensus odds.
How We Assign The Stars
Our model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather and injuries. From there, we set our own line, compare it with Vegas and assign a star rating to each spread, moneyline and over/under bet.
The team ratings use a strategic combination of historical team results, the current matchup (including anticipated starters) and the projected outcome. Team ratings are dynamic and will update based on major player injury news. The team’s offensive rating is the core piece and carries the most weight. The defensive rating as well as home field advantage are each significant factors. Other factors (weather, injuries, narratives, etc.) are taken into consideration and applied where appropriate.
How To Use Best Bets
Generally speaking, 3-star bets (and better) are recommended for the average user. A more aggressive bettor can bet 2-star games, while a more conservative bettor should stick to 4 and 5-star bets. Additionally, you are able to scale the wager based on star rating. For example, if you are aggressively betting all bets rated 2-stars and above, we recommend that you bet a larger percentage of your bankroll on a 5-star bet than a 2-star bet.
In the 2019 NFL season, our model’s ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bets went 214-153 (58.31%) combined.
NFL Public Data
Public data tells you which side the general public is betting on. It measures the number of bet slips on both sides of a wager. On BetQL, this is signified by “Ticket %.” To be clear, this should not be confused with total money or handle, but rather the percentage of total bets wagered on a particular outcome.
BetQL web users view NFL public data like this:
As you can see, 67% of public bets were wagered on the Chiefs (-9.5) while 33% were on the Chargers (+9.5). This means that if 100 bettors were involved, 67 of them would have bet slips on the Chiefs (at any value) while 33 would have bet slips on the Chargers (at any value).
BetQL mobile users view NFL public data like this:
As you can see, 52% of public bets were wagered on the Seahawks (+4.5) while 48% were on the Chargers (-4.5). This means that if 100 bettors were involved, 52 of them would have bet slips on the Seahawks (at any value) while 48 would have bet slips on the Packers (at any value).
Betting against the public is a commonly deployed strategy because novice bettors tend to overreact to news like injuries or suspensions. When do you fade the public? When 70% of public bets are wagered on one side of an outcome, betting on the other side is a proven long-term winning strategy. At times, there’s no doubt that universally betting with the public can lead to short-term success.
However, it’s not a winning long-term strategy. Remember, sportsbooks are profitable for a reason. The lines that look too good to be true probably are. Therefore, taking a look at where the public is leaning and comparing it to our best bets and sharp data is highly suggested. Whether you want to bet with the public or fade the public, you can get a look at live data at any moment before gametime. Luckily, you have access to all of that under one roof here at BetQL.
NFL Sharp Data
Sharp data tells you which side of a bet the pros are betting on. Let's look at a example of what sharp data looks like on our web platform:
Here’s what it looks like on our mobile app:
On our web dashboards, we refer to sharp bets as the "Pro Edge" and on our mobile app, we refer to sharp picks as “Pro Money Advantage”. The higher this number is, the more sharp bettors are favoring the bet over the public. The lower this number is, the more sharp bettors are aligned with the public.
Pro Edge/Pro Money Advantage = Total Money % - Total Ticket %
In the example above, 67% of total money was wagered on the Chiefs while 53% of the total bet slips backed Kansas City. That resulted in a 14% Pro Edge. Since professional bettors tend to wager higher amounts of money than casual bettors, sharp data is a valuable tool to use. In this case, expert bettors leaned more towards the Chiefs than public bettors did.
Sharp bettors are considered pros due to the fact that they typically wager the most money and are usually responsible for moving lines. Sharps usually get heavy action on their targeted bets soon after odds are released. Having access to those targets is extremely powerful.
The higher the Pro Edge, the more sharp bettors are favoring a particular bet over the public. The lower the Pro Edge, the more sharp bettors are aligned with the public. Betting with the sharps doesn’t work every single time, but if you want to consistently make informed bets by utilizing sharp data, your bankroll will most likely grow over time.